INI supports the JUNIPER consortium

Created:	2021-03-23 09:29
Institution:	Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Description:	Background Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, mathematical and statistical modelling have been used to provide estimates of the epidemic in the UK and to make short- and long-term predictions on interventions. The teams of epidemiological modellers and statisticians in the JUNIPER consortium represent a core of committed and experienced research groups that have been generating predictions, forecasts and insights feeding into the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), both of whom advise the UK government on scientific matters relating to the UK’s response to the pandemic. JUNIPER consortium members continue to respond to rapid requests from the UK government via SPI-M and SAGE, including providing weekly forecast of the reproductive number R and growth rate in the UK and predictions of the effect on spread of given interventions. Furthermore, as the epidemic goes through distinct phases, the research teams are proactively developing novel methodology and analysis as well as horizon scan the impact of new scientific findings and how this will impact on current and future modelling. JUNIPER consortium will embed scientific activities within an open and collaborative framework, including considerable public outreach so that scientific assumptions and findings are effectively communicated. Our consortium will be outward-facing and inclusive, helping to add value to a range of existing and new COVID-19 activities. They aim to build national capacity and also contribute to training the next generation of applied epidemiological modellers.