The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
| Created: | 2022-02-11 13:27 |
|---|---|
| Institution: | Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences |
| Description: | Background
There is an urgent need to advance the reliability and reproducibility of all forms of computer-based calculations. In an experimental setting, it is often common practice to provide not only measured values themselves, but also an estimate of the uncertainty in the measurements. Yet this is not yet standard practice when presenting predictions made by computational models. Computational methods are becoming increasingly important for decision-making and thus a similar approach is needed to make computational predictions actionable, since virtually all models are contaminated by several sources of uncertainty. Sources of uncertainty originate in the imperfectly known input parameters assumptions made within the mathematical form of the model, and the influence of stochastic effects. Uncertainty quantification is a challenging field that combines scientific models, statistics, high-performance computing, and increasingly machine learning methods. The mathematical sciences have a key role to play in addressing these challenges. In this event series, the Newton Gateway is working with members of the EPSRC-funded SEAVEA project. The work of the project seeks to address such challenges through the promotion and development of an open-source software toolkit for verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ). This is optimised for efficient execution on many platforms including those at the current petascale and the emerging exascale. These capabilities offer new opportunities for simulations in fields as diverse as fusion, weather and climate modelling, epidemiology, advanced materials, biomedicine and many other domains. Aims and Objectives A series of three half-day science events is planned between 8th -10th February 2022 which will highlight key aspects of the research, bringing together relevant stakeholders across academia, industry and government. It will be delivered as a RAMP Continuity Network activity. The event series has a focus on uncertainty modelling for epidemiology and pandemics, but will also highlight new opportunities for simulations in fields as diverse as fusion, weather and climate modelling, advanced materials, biomedicine and many other domains. Sessions will be spread across the three half days as follows: VVUQ Fundamentals with a Focus on Epidemiology and Pandemics Wider Applications of VVUQ Methods Challenges and Advanced Methods for Epidemiological Modelling |
| Website: | https://gateway.newton.ac.uk/event/tgm110 |
Media items
This collection contains 17 media items.
Media items
Bayesian real-time epidemic monitoring of Covid-19
Angelos Alexopoulos; MRC Biostatistics Unit
10 February 2022 – 15:10 to 15:35
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Calibration Issues in Epidemiological Modelling
TJ McKinley; University of Exeter
10 February 2022 – 14:00 to 14:25
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Fundamental Principles of Reproducibility
Odd Erik Gundersen; Norwegian University of Science and Technology
8 February 2022 – 14:00 to 14:25
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Good Reporting of Epidemic Models: Mathematics, Statistics and Uncertainty. EPIFORGE 2020.
Jane Hutton; University of Warwick
10 February 2022 – 12:00 to 12:30
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Introduction to UQ - An Overview of the Challenges Posed by Complex Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Models to inform policy...
Daniel Williamson; University of Exeter
8 February 2022 – 13:35 to 14:00
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Local Covid-19 Simulations – Expansion to National
Derek Groen
10 February 2022 – 15:35 to 16:00
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Model uncertainty in turbulent fluid dynamics
Daan Crommelin; Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI); Universiteit van Amsterdam
9 February 2022 – 15:10 to 15:35
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Molecular Dynamics
Peter Coveney; University College London
9 February 2022 – 15:35 to 16:00
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Probabilistic Calibration of Personalised Heart Models from Sparse and Noisy Measurements
Richard Clayton; University of Sheffield
9 February 2022 – 14:25 to 14:50
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Problems with Combining Models in Absence of Uncertainty Quantification
Veronica Bowman; Defence Science and Technology Laboratory
10 February 2022 – 13:35 to 14:00
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 15 Feb 2022
Quantifying Uncertainty in Assessment of Possible Exoplanet Biosignatures
Peter Vickers; Durham University
9 February 2022 – 16:20 to 16:40
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
State of the Art Methods and Tools in VVUQ
Diana Suleimenova; Brunel University
8 February 2022 – 15:35 to 16:00
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
The Impact of Uncertainty on the CovidSim Pandemic Code
Wouter Edeling; Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)
8 February 2022 – 14:25 to 14:50
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Weather and Climate, with Possible Application to Pandemics
Tim Palmer; University of Oxford
8 February 2022 – 15:10 to 15:35
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Projections Used to Inform Adaptation
David Sexton; Met Office
9 February 2022 – 14:00 to 14:25
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
UQ in Modelling of Fusion Power Plants for the UK National Grid
Rob Akers, Wayne Arter; United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority
9 February 2022 – 13:35 to 14:00
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022
Very Large Parameter Problems
Wouter Edeling; Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)
10 February 2022 – 14:25 to 14:50
Collection: The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Feb 2022