Pay Experts for Results, Not Prestige
Duration: 1 hour 1 min
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| Description: |
Hanson, R
Wednesday 10th June 2020 - 17:30 to 18:30 INI Seminar Room 1 |
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| Created: | 2020-06-11 14:01 |
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| Collection: | Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics: Mathematical and statistical challenges in understanding the dynamics of infectious disease pandemics |
| Publisher: | Isaac Newton Institute |
| Copyright: | Hanson, R |
| Language: | eng (English) |
| Abstract: | Doctors, lawyers, priests, teachers, politicians, fund managers, researchers, and more - how can we get experts to serve us? We have five main ways: pay for results, require procedures, or pick based on track records, prestige, or loyalty. Picking on prestige is most common. But paying for results seems most robust, though for cash-paid experts it requires that customers prevent expert coordination, or wait long to pay. For experts who forecast, paying for results can often be achieved via prediction markets, which have great untapped potential.
Resources: http://hanson.gmu.edu/expert.pdf http://hanson.gmu.edu/futarchy.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/radical-pay-for-results.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/05/five-ways-to-rate.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/06/science-2-0.html |
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