From Pandemic to Endemicity: Is Behavior Over or Underweighted in Modeling the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Duration: 18 mins 58 secs

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Description:	Eili Klein (Johns Hopkins University) 22 February 2022 – 14:00 to 14:20


Created:	2022-02-28 13:05
Collection:	Behaviour and Policy During Pandemics: Models and Methods
Publisher:	Isaac Newton Institute
Copyright:	Eili Klein
Language:	eng (English)


Abstract:	The start of a pandemic is declared by the WHO, but the end of a pandemic is less clear. There is no clear point at which a pandemic transitions to being an endemic disease, but in some sense it is when the fear of disease abates to the point that it is not a conscious driver of behaviour for the vast majority of individuals. The abatement of fear happens at different times and at different actual levels of disease for different people, and it is really this fear that drives people's behaviour. One lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic is that it was likely changes in fear of the disease that were the largest drivers of behaviour. While fear was loosely related to the actual numbers of cases/hospitalizations, this was likely not as tightly coupled as was originally believed it would be in economic epidemiological models prior to the pandemic. Understanding how fear drove behaviour over time and across spatial gradients is crucial for understanding both how the end of the pandemic is likely to play out as well as how to prepare for future pandemics and epidemics.

Abstract:

The start of a pandemic is declared by the WHO, but the end of a pandemic is less clear. There is no clear point at which a pandemic transitions to being an endemic disease, but in some sense it is when the fear of disease abates to the point that it is not a conscious driver of behaviour for the vast majority of individuals. The abatement of fear happens at different times and at different actual levels of disease for different people, and it is really this fear that drives people's behaviour. One lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic is that it was likely changes in fear of the disease that were the largest drivers of behaviour. While fear was loosely related to the actual numbers of cases/hospitalizations, this was likely not as tightly coupled as was originally believed it would be in economic epidemiological models prior to the pandemic. Understanding how fear drove behaviour over time and across spatial gradients is crucial for understanding both how the end of the pandemic is likely to play out as well as how to prepare for future pandemics and epidemics.

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