# Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Created: | 2016-09-06 09:58 |
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Institution: | Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences |

Description: | While there have been dramatic advances in the range and scale of forensic techniques used to help solve legal cases, the way that the probative value of forensic evidence is presented in courts is rudimentary and often flawed. In particular, where probative value is presented in probabilistic and statistical terms there have been numerous instances of misunderstanding leading to miscarriages of justice. Yet there are emerging Bayesian-based probabilistic frameworks - for evaluating forensic evidence and combining it with other types of evidence – that have the potential to improve dramatically many aspects of the criminal justice system.
The programme will develop the main research topics in this area, such as the use of Bayesian networks for combining and evaluating multiple types of evidence, and statistical methods for DNA analysis, particularly in the difficult situations that arise in actual cases of forensic detection: mixed, low template or degraded DNA samples or rare Y-haplotypes. We will also examine the role statistical databases play in other types of trace evidence such as fibre analysis, soil analysis, and drug traces on banknotes. The programme will address the fundamental mathematical, statistical and algorithmic challenges in developing the methods to increase their reliability, and ensure their consistency and applicability to real cases. A small number of well known cases (in which probabilistic issues related to DNA and other types of evidence were critical) will be used as a common vehicle for developing and articulating the research. The programme will also address the problem of lack of consensus on methodology amongst the forensic community, and of conflicting, controversial and widely misinterpreted court authorities on the application and communication of the methods. The major barriers facing the optimal use of mathematics in the courtroom are on three levels: scientific, cultural, and communication. The programme addresses all three types of barriers in an interdisciplinary manner, and includes both research and workshops that consider the problems of introducing the latest scientific knowledge to members of the forensic and legal professions and the task of communicating these ideas to the widest possible public. A major goal of the programme is to produce a consensual set of guidelines specifying conditions under which specific techniques can be used to provide results and reliability estimates that are sufficiently certain to be presented in court without the risk of being challenged on appeal. |

# Media items

This collection contains 71 media items.

### Media items

#### A Bayesian network for glass evidence evaluation at activity level: a novel approach to model the background...

Vergeer, P (Netherlands Forensic Institute)

Monday 26th September 2016 - 16:15 to 17:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 30 Sep 2016

#### A Bayesian nonparametric approach for the rare type problem

Cereda, G (Université de Lausanne, Universiteit Leiden)

Friday 11th November 2016 - 09:45 to 10:30

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 11 Nov 2016

#### A Framework to Present Bayesian Networks to Domain Experts and Potential Users

Yet, B

Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 13:30 to 14:15

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Wed 5 Oct 2016

#### A Graphical Model Approach to Eyewitness Identification Data

Luby, A

Thursday 29th September 2016 - 09:30 to 10:15

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Thu 6 Oct 2016

#### Admissibility and evaluation of identification evidence: 'experts', bystanders and shapeshifters

San Roque, M

Thursday 29th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Thu 6 Oct 2016

#### An exact, efficient, and flexible representation of statistical models for DNA profiles

Therese Graversen

Wednesday 9th November 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 11 Nov 2016

#### An Introduction to Bayesian Networks

Dawid, P (University of Cambridge)

Monday 26th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 30 Sep 2016

#### An introduction to Forensic Voice Comparison

Morrison, G S (University of Alberta)

Wednesday 21st Septmber 2016

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Tue 24 Jan 2017

#### Assessing Evidentiary Value in Fire Debris Analysis

Sigman, M (University of Central Florida)

Thursday 10th November 2016 - 15:30 to 16:15

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 11 Nov 2016

#### Basic probabilistic issues in the Sciences and in Forensics clarified by a Toy Experiment modelled by a BN

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 30 Sep 2016

#### Bayes & the Blame Game: How to ease the mutually felt frustration between law professionals and scientists.

Alkemade, F (Other)

Thursday 1st September 2016 - 10:00 to 10:30

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Tue 6 Sep 2016

#### Bayes Nets for the evaluation of testimony

Garbolino, P (IUAV University of Venice)

Monday 26th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 30 Sep 2016

#### Bayesian Argumentation in the Real World

Hahn, U

Thursday 29th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Thu 6 Oct 2016

#### Bayesian networks for the evaluation of evidence when attributing paintings to painters

de Zoete, J (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Tuesday 6th December 2016 - 11:00 to 12:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Tue 3 Jan 2017

#### Bayesian networks: challenges and opportunities in the law

Fenton, N (Queen Mary, University of London)

Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 30 Sep 2016

#### Capacity and Comprehension of Mathematical Reasoning by Counsel and Courts

Caruso, D (University of Adelaide)

Friday 2nd September 2016 - 12:00 to 12:30

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Tue 6 Sep 2016

#### Causal networks in evidential reasoning

Lagnado, D

Thursday 29th September 2016 - 11:30 to 12:15

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Thu 6 Oct 2016

#### Causality and Responsibility in Formal Verification and Beyond

Chockler, H

Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Wed 5 Oct 2016

#### Cell type determination and association with the DNA donor

Jacob de Zoete

Wednesday 9th November 2016 - 11:30 to 12:00

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Fri 11 Nov 2016

#### Communicating likelihood ratios

Spiegelhalter, D (University of Cambridge)

Friday 2nd September 2016 - 15:30 to 16:30

**Collection**:
Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

**Institution**:
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

**Created**:
Tue 6 Sep 2016