Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science's image
Created: 2016-09-06 09:58
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Description: While there have been dramatic advances in the range and scale of forensic techniques used to help solve legal cases, the way that the probative value of forensic evidence is presented in courts is rudimentary and often flawed. In particular, where probative value is presented in probabilistic and statistical terms there have been numerous instances of misunderstanding leading to miscarriages of justice. Yet there are emerging Bayesian-based probabilistic frameworks - for evaluating forensic evidence and combining it with other types of evidence – that have the potential to improve dramatically many aspects of the criminal justice system.

The programme will develop the main research topics in this area, such as the use of Bayesian networks for combining and evaluating multiple types of evidence, and statistical methods for DNA analysis, particularly in the difficult situations that arise in actual cases of forensic detection: mixed, low template or degraded DNA samples or rare Y-haplotypes. We will also examine the role statistical databases play in other types of trace evidence such as fibre analysis, soil analysis, and drug traces on banknotes.

The programme will address the fundamental mathematical, statistical and algorithmic challenges in developing the methods to increase their reliability, and ensure their consistency and applicability to real cases. A small number of well known cases (in which probabilistic issues related to DNA and other types of evidence were critical) will be used as a common vehicle for developing and articulating the research. The programme will also address the problem of lack of consensus on methodology amongst the forensic community, and of conflicting, controversial and widely misinterpreted court authorities on the application and communication of the methods. The major barriers facing the optimal use of mathematics in the courtroom are on three levels: scientific, cultural, and communication. The programme addresses all three types of barriers in an interdisciplinary manner, and includes both research and workshops that consider the problems of introducing the latest scientific knowledge to members of the forensic and legal professions and the task of communicating these ideas to the widest possible public.

A major goal of the programme is to produce a consensual set of guidelines specifying conditions under which specific techniques can be used to provide results and reliability estimates that are sufficiently certain to be presented in court without the risk of being challenged on appeal.
 

Media items

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Media items

A Bayesian network for glass evidence evaluation at activity level: a novel approach to model the background...

   7 views

Vergeer, P (Netherlands Forensic Institute)
Monday 26th September 2016 - 16:15 to 17:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016


A Bayesian nonparametric approach for the rare type problem

   24 views

Cereda, G (Université de Lausanne, Universiteit Leiden)
Friday 11th November 2016 - 09:45 to 10:30

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Fri 11 Nov 2016


A Graphical Model Approach to Eyewitness Identification Data

   8 views

Luby, A
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 09:30 to 10:15

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Thu 6 Oct 2016


An Introduction to Bayesian Networks

   61 views

Dawid, P (University of Cambridge)
Monday 26th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016


An introduction to Forensic Voice Comparison

   25 views

Morrison, G S (University of Alberta)
Wednesday 21st Septmber 2016

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Tue 24 Jan 2017


Assessing Evidentiary Value in Fire Debris Analysis

   12 views

Sigman, M (University of Central Florida)
Thursday 10th November 2016 - 15:30 to 16:15

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Fri 11 Nov 2016


Bayes Nets for the evaluation of testimony

   8 views

Garbolino, P (IUAV University of Venice)
Monday 26th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016


Bayesian Argumentation in the Real World

   19 views

Hahn, U
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Thu 6 Oct 2016


Bayesian networks for the evaluation of evidence when attributing paintings to painters

   15 views

de Zoete, J (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Tuesday 6th December 2016 - 11:00 to 12:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Tue 3 Jan 2017


Bayesian networks: challenges and opportunities in the law

   25 views

Fenton, N (Queen Mary, University of London)
Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016


Capacity and Comprehension of Mathematical Reasoning by Counsel and Courts

   16 views

Caruso, D (University of Adelaide)
Friday 2nd September 2016 - 12:00 to 12:30

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Tue 6 Sep 2016


Causal networks in evidential reasoning

   28 views

Lagnado, D
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 11:30 to 12:15

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Thu 6 Oct 2016


Causality and Responsibility in Formal Verification and Beyond

   10 views

Chockler, H
Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Wed 5 Oct 2016


Cell type determination and association with the DNA donor

   6 views

Jacob de Zoete
Wednesday 9th November 2016 - 11:30 to 12:00

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Fri 11 Nov 2016


Communicating likelihood ratios

   38 views

Spiegelhalter, D (University of Cambridge)
Friday 2nd September 2016 - 15:30 to 16:30

Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Created: Tue 6 Sep 2016


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