Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
| Created: | 2016-09-06 09:58 |
|---|---|
| Institution: | Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences |
| Description: | While there have been dramatic advances in the range and scale of forensic techniques used to help solve legal cases, the way that the probative value of forensic evidence is presented in courts is rudimentary and often flawed. In particular, where probative value is presented in probabilistic and statistical terms there have been numerous instances of misunderstanding leading to miscarriages of justice. Yet there are emerging Bayesian-based probabilistic frameworks - for evaluating forensic evidence and combining it with other types of evidence – that have the potential to improve dramatically many aspects of the criminal justice system.
The programme will develop the main research topics in this area, such as the use of Bayesian networks for combining and evaluating multiple types of evidence, and statistical methods for DNA analysis, particularly in the difficult situations that arise in actual cases of forensic detection: mixed, low template or degraded DNA samples or rare Y-haplotypes. We will also examine the role statistical databases play in other types of trace evidence such as fibre analysis, soil analysis, and drug traces on banknotes. The programme will address the fundamental mathematical, statistical and algorithmic challenges in developing the methods to increase their reliability, and ensure their consistency and applicability to real cases. A small number of well known cases (in which probabilistic issues related to DNA and other types of evidence were critical) will be used as a common vehicle for developing and articulating the research. The programme will also address the problem of lack of consensus on methodology amongst the forensic community, and of conflicting, controversial and widely misinterpreted court authorities on the application and communication of the methods. The major barriers facing the optimal use of mathematics in the courtroom are on three levels: scientific, cultural, and communication. The programme addresses all three types of barriers in an interdisciplinary manner, and includes both research and workshops that consider the problems of introducing the latest scientific knowledge to members of the forensic and legal professions and the task of communicating these ideas to the widest possible public. A major goal of the programme is to produce a consensual set of guidelines specifying conditions under which specific techniques can be used to provide results and reliability estimates that are sufficiently certain to be presented in court without the risk of being challenged on appeal. |
Media items
This collection contains 71 media items.
Media items
A Bayesian network for glass evidence evaluation at activity level: a novel approach to model the background...
Vergeer, P (Netherlands Forensic Institute)
Monday 26th September 2016 - 16:15 to 17:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016
A Bayesian nonparametric approach for the rare type problem
Cereda, G (Université de Lausanne, Universiteit Leiden)
Friday 11th November 2016 - 09:45 to 10:30
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Nov 2016
A Framework to Present Bayesian Networks to Domain Experts and Potential Users
Yet, B
Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 13:30 to 14:15
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Wed 5 Oct 2016
A Graphical Model Approach to Eyewitness Identification Data
Luby, A
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 09:30 to 10:15
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 6 Oct 2016
Admissibility and evaluation of identification evidence: 'experts', bystanders and shapeshifters
San Roque, M
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 6 Oct 2016
An exact, efficient, and flexible representation of statistical models for DNA profiles
Therese Graversen
Wednesday 9th November 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Nov 2016
An Introduction to Bayesian Networks
Dawid, P (University of Cambridge)
Monday 26th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016
An introduction to Forensic Voice Comparison
Morrison, G S (University of Alberta)
Wednesday 21st Septmber 2016
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 24 Jan 2017
Assessing Evidentiary Value in Fire Debris Analysis
Sigman, M (University of Central Florida)
Thursday 10th November 2016 - 15:30 to 16:15
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Nov 2016
Basic probabilistic issues in the Sciences and in Forensics clarified by a Toy Experiment modelled by a BN
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016
Bayes & the Blame Game: How to ease the mutually felt frustration between law professionals and scientists.
Alkemade, F (Other)
Thursday 1st September 2016 - 10:00 to 10:30
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 6 Sep 2016
Bayes Nets for the evaluation of testimony
Garbolino, P (IUAV University of Venice)
Monday 26th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016
Bayesian Argumentation in the Real World
Hahn, U
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 6 Oct 2016
Bayesian networks for the evaluation of evidence when attributing paintings to painters
de Zoete, J (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Tuesday 6th December 2016 - 11:00 to 12:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 3 Jan 2017
Bayesian networks: challenges and opportunities in the law
Fenton, N (Queen Mary, University of London)
Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 10:15 to 11:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 30 Sep 2016
Capacity and Comprehension of Mathematical Reasoning by Counsel and Courts
Caruso, D (University of Adelaide)
Friday 2nd September 2016 - 12:00 to 12:30
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 6 Sep 2016
Causal networks in evidential reasoning
Lagnado, D
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 11:30 to 12:15
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 6 Oct 2016
Causality and Responsibility in Formal Verification and Beyond
Chockler, H
Tuesday 27th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Wed 5 Oct 2016
Cell type determination and association with the DNA donor
Jacob de Zoete
Wednesday 9th November 2016 - 11:30 to 12:00
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 11 Nov 2016
Communicating likelihood ratios
Spiegelhalter, D (University of Cambridge)
Friday 2nd September 2016 - 15:30 to 16:30
Collection: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 6 Sep 2016